Before The Storm

It takes time to see the beauty of the Canadian prairies, but when it hits you, you will be floored by it. How boring the prairies are is a bit of a joke for Canadians driving cross country. There are many punchlines for once you hit the flat lands between the Canadian shield and the Rocky Mountains.  Watch you don’t fall asleep, because when you wake up, you’ll be out of gas. But this is a naive take of someone just passing through. They haven’t given themselves enough time to see anything. They let their mind flatten reality.  They are not really looking at the landscape in front of them punctuated by a cyclical line dividing heaven and earth.

I moved to Winnipeg in 2016. While meeting people at a bar about a month after moving I was invited to join an ultimate frisbee team. Most of the games were played at sport complexes just outside the city budding up against farmers fields.  This is where I saw my first prairie thunderstorm come in.  The black clouds on the horizon were unimaginably tall and menacing. The rain was a heavy wall within the thin strip between cloud and horizon. The dark volume would dwarf the snowy peaks of the Himalayas.  I pointed at the clouds heading towards us mid game to a teammate, and he shrugged it off.  Those clouds were at least a half hour away. We still had time to finish the game.  We adjust our frisbee throws to factor in the slowly intensifying wind.

We now stand in a shifting landscape, where our reference points are breaking apart, and our ability to adapt is being put to the test. The current US administration is threatening 25% tariffs on Canadian goods at the end of this month.  It is unclear why this is happening and what the outcomes will be for either of our countries, but it’s a storm on the horizon.  As far as I can tell right now this trade war should not have a direct impact on my product entering the United States as my rugs are of Indian origin. Unfortunately, the trade aggressions if followed through would greatly slow down the Canadian economy which would obviously have a massive impact on my business as Canada continues to be my main market.  The US administration has also alluded to tariffs being levied on India in the future, but we will need to wait and see. 

I’ve been fortunate enough to call three provinces home in this country.  I grew up on a farm in southern Ontario, studied and worked in Toronto as a young man, clocked a few years in Manitoba to further my career, and now run my small business from a studio on the Isle of Montreal in Quebec.  This has given me a deep appreciation for the cultural and environmental diversity of this nation. I’m slowly piecing together a tapestry that is impossible to finish. 

Trump has gotten a few facts right in his statements thus far. First is that access to the U.S. market is a privilege.  As a Canadian who is focusing on growing my business in the United States, I understand this implicitly.  Knowing how difficult it is for my Indian partners to travel through American airports I am aware my ability to move relatively freely to visit my retailers and attend American tradeshows should not be taken for granted. 

Trump is also correct in stating that the trade war will hurt Canada more than it will hurt America. Let me point out firstly that nobody wins a trade war. This will negatively affect both economies. The severity of the damage is difficult to calculate but it is clear it will be more painful for the Canadian economy.  Canada is much smaller than America in almost every way but in geography and maple syrup production.  Our modern economic history has been that of intertwining supply chains built on free trade and an open border. In many provinces we trade more with our bordering American states than we do our fellow Canadian provinces.  The economic slowdown will be felt much deeper here in the north, and unfortunately the only logical response is for Canada to start retaliatory tariffs on American products that have a high reliance on the Canadian market.  This is a war that Canada doesn't understand the reasons for and doesn't want. 

The thing is, I love America. I have many friends living across the U.S. that I care for deeply.  Whenever I travel to America I easily get caught up in the wealthy, open and friendly culture of Americans. I always found it ironic that Americans consider Canadians friendly. We are socially closed off compared to them.  If your neighbor keeps going on about how nice and friendly you are, it's your neighbor that is the nice one. 

Our nations are brothers, and the anti-American sentiment that is currently bubbling in Canada saddens me. I'll be honest, I'm not a great lover of the newly found economic patriotism in Canada. Buying Canadian is a great sentiment, but who of us can buy a two-ton roll of aluminum coil? Where in Canada can I partner with traditional rug weavers for my rug production?

I've been fortunate to do business with people throughout many different countries and I believe more trade across borders enriches everyone. Trade is not a zero-sum game.  My business wouldn't exist if it wasn't for my network of producers in India I rely on.  Regardless of my feelings, the creeping trade war with America, however foolish and ill conceived it is, brings to light Canadas overreliance on the United States and our need to diversify.  As a nation we need to focus on increasing interprovincial trade and plan to get our goods to market in other countries to fill the gaps being carved out of our economy.

Being Canadian means seeing the beauty in a diversity of landscape and culture.  Our future is not of self reliance, but that of opening to the world. I understand that patriotism is needed when facing an economic crisis where the world superpower suggests dissolving our nation and destroying our way of life, but patriotism is a dangerous mistress. 

A storm is gathering on the southern horizon, and Canada stands in the open, no shelter in sight. But with an openness to the world, we can adapt to the shifting wind.